Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc26675a7ef69ca24bcff5b85718380d8ca5415e76d0b0dcee7fd0b98baaec3da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madrid CFof Manchester City FC, Real Madrid CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,303 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Manchester City FC | 11c | 3,420$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.76 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Manchester City FC | 10c | 1,999$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…8709backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 1,325$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Manchester City FC | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd23…f7eabacked Manchester City FC | 1c | 913.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70c…08d3backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 390$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 261 | 44.4%116 W · 145 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 359.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Manchester City FC | 10c | 356.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Manchester City FC | 8c | 345.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Manchester City FC | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Manchester City FC | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Manchester City FC | 6c | 184.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Manchester City FC | 9c | 172.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 402 | 50.7%204 W · 198 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 158.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9530…ce5abacked Manchester City FC | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 135.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester City FC | 10c | 129.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 111$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 100.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Real Madrid CF | 79c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.