Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9014bd31878eeca845a0c1b6142bea200ae67b6cd66e1923af4f901b6dee4b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madrid CFof Real Madrid CF, Manchester City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,298 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Real Madrid CF | 4c | 3,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890.15 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Real Madrid CF | 34c | 2,126$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.62 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Real Madrid CF | 3c | 1,740$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.07 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…8194backed Real Madrid CF | 53c | 1,618$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Real Madrid CF | 3c | 1,500$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.48 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Real Madrid CF | 4c | 1,171$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.75 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 1,027$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.02 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…6321backed Manchester City FC | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Manchester City FC | 51c | 981.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Real Madrid CF | 4c | 752$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.66 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Real Madrid CF | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 491.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 430.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.66 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Manchester City FC | 52c | 347.25$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…f5e2backed Real Madrid CF | 5c | 341.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,405.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Real Madrid CF | 3c | 339.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.22 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…f130backed Real Madrid CF | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Real Madrid CF | 5c | 205.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.74 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Real Madrid CF | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Manchester City FC | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 198 | 56.6%112 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…cdebbacked Manchester City FC | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Real Madrid CF | 6c | 166.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.04 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Real Madrid CF | 52c | 162.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Real Madrid CF | 20c | 157.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester City FC | 37c | 123.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Manchester City FC | 47c | 106.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4d…3e59backed Manchester City FC | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…c9f4backed Manchester City FC | 37c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Manchester City FC | 52c | 96.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Manchester City FC | 53c | 90.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Manchester City FC | 54c | 87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Real Madrid CF | 25c | 82.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Real Madrid CF | 74c | 68.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1835…83afbacked Manchester City FC | 52c | 65.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 60.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Manchester City FC | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…d178backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 48.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Manchester City FC | 34c | 44.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Real Madrid CF | 50c | 40.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…54f4backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Real Madrid CF | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…8c4bbacked Manchester City FC | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Real Madrid CF | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Real Madrid CF | 50c | 37.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Real Madrid CF | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Real Madrid CF | 71c | 34.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Real Madrid CF | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Real Madrid CF | 39c | 30.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Real Madrid CF | 49c | 29.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…ab20backed Manchester City FC | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…0561backed Manchester City FC | 52c | 26.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Real Madrid CF | 64c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Real Madrid CF | 59c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.