Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dbfa1822ef28da7c25d28896957774a38ceb93cdad12f566dbbab9fa9a86cf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,593 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 77,786$14,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,782.97 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 5,382$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.51 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 19c | 3,298$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.7 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 19c | 808.91$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 18c | 621.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 77c | 540.09$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 20c | 533.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 19c | 509.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Under | 20c | 501.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 18c | 392.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Under | 13c | 329.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 20c | 327.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 79c | 311.65$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 19c | 309.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 20c | 303.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 19c | 297.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 19c | 289.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…2088backed Over | 80c | 281.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca09…9f9abacked Under | 20c | 281.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…53cebacked Under | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…7af7backed Under | 12c | 239.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Under | 19c | 237.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Under | 18c | 235.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Under | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 20c | 181.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…6562backed Under | 20c | 157.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Under | 19c | 123.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 19c | 123.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 129 | 35.7%46 W · 83 L | -12.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 19c | 119.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 20c | 115.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…013fbacked Under | 19c | 110.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70c…08d3backed Under | 19c | 105.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 21c | 104.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 20c | 100.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 78c | 98.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 80c | 94.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 18c | 91.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 19c | 87.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7df…4977backed Over | 79c | 85.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff55…9334backed Over | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 17c | 66.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 19c | 64.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4510…712ebacked Over | 80c | 61.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Under | 20c | 52.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Under | 20c | 51.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…a964backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…a886backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.