Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f46f6888e0f521dd46a205a478faf8e636f716ccf183860bafb8421cdb8580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 0c | 247,500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…5382backed No | 73c | 17,510$12,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,743.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 12,227$3,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290.93 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 5,833$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.69 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,069$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.44 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 27c | 1,906$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.53 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 926$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 707.72$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd3…74d4backed Yes | 24c | 673.71$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes | 31c | 651.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 564.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 72c | 465.18$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 453.59$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 77c | 403.86$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 73c | 326.74$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 25c | 304$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 72c | 299.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed No | 70c | 255.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 22c | 239.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 228.95$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 639 | 57.1%365 W · 274 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 26c | 200.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 22c | 177.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 30c | 177$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 26c | 163$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1e…2dbcbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 27c | 109.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 74c | 109.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 104.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 99.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 42c | 90.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 43c | 81.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 71.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked No | 74c | 66.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75e…6518backed Yes | 23c | 65.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 62.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…362bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 22c | 58.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Yes | 26c | 56.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 73c | 51.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…7248backed No | 77c | 50.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…1329backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 73c | 49.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…e58fbacked No | 73c | 45.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 42.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 30c | 42.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Yes | 29c | 41.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…c4b5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 34.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 36c | 33.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 78c | 27.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 66c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 59c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 73c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb end in a draw?this page
- Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-02-26?Yes won
- Will KRC Genk win on 2026-02-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.