Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56bad507a8b76b91cffe1b77e23b64bec31aa2212cfbee7753173f789defe8d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,952 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Under | 42c | 5,574$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,341.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 1c | 5,224$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 22cpaid | +705.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 57c | 4,498$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.33 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 1,916$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.18 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 58c | 1,391$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.28 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 25c | 1,233$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.52 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 799.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…362bbacked Under | 13c | 730.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 42c | 713.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.85 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 713.92$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.54 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 74c | 666.6$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 600.35$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.35 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…a8f0backed Under | 42c | 321.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 249.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 79c | 241.25$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…451ebacked Over | 59c | 185.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 41c | 175.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 157.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…bcd1backed Over | 59c | 137.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 57c | 115.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 58c | 114.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 29c | 97.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 77c | 79.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Under | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 57c | 54.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 52.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…e7afbacked Under | 43c | 52.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Under | 46c | 39.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 36.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 57c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 36c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 58c | 32.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 42c | 31.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-2.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.