Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28b418b2aeb0f2eec0a64d0cca38a2a7df484a45ee5c35d3d2b2822c27c17dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,124,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,124,236 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 748 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6200…e6e3backed No | 2c | 57,765$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed No | 1c | 28,439$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 11c | 25,439$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,631.2 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…4397backed No | 0c | 24,495$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 23c | 23,695$5,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,290.52 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 21,163$3,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,377.43 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 13c | 20,894$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,166.21 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…844bbacked No | 1c | 18,025$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 11c | 17,557$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 0c | 16,043$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…ac6ebacked Yes | 29c | 15,049$4,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,731.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…7360backed No | 0c | 14,364$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 1c | 14,110$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.51 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 32c | 13,040$4,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,862.23 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 14c | 12,202$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,548.58 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…c4b1backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 11,850$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.77 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 11,414$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,427.39 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 29c | 11,231$3,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,987.79 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 67c | 10,668$7,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,147.31 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 10,470$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…b823backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…cd39backed Yes | 13c | 9,832$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,565.25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 8,132$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,256.55 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 71c | 8,127$5,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,737.19 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…2b9fbacked No | 1c | 8,052$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 0c | 7,479$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…74a1backed Yes | 30c | 7,302$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,108.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0226…0645backed No | 0c | 6,950$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 30c | 6,922$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,848.73 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…aa56backed Yes | 13c | 6,276$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 65c | 6,138$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998.84 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…ae82backed No | 72c | 5,949$4,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.31 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…6d97backed No | 75c | 5,829$4,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 16c | 5,796$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.5 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 62c | 5,647$3,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.93 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 66c | 5,524$3,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657.86 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 54c | 5,417$2,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.37 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…428fbacked Yes | 50c | 5,356$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 55c | 5,200$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.72 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed No | 66c | 4,800$3,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,168 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 10c | 4,718$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,246.56 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 12c | 4,667$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,113.77 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…0319backed Yes | 19c | 4,631$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…bcbcbacked No | 6c | 4,617$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.21 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 8c | 4,611$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,240.76 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 16c | 4,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…fe0ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,400$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +105%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ef…da03backed Yes | 39c | 4,352$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,652.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 32c | 4,206$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875.08 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…6594backed Yes | 45c | 4,083$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 8c | 4,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 11c | 3,976$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,522.52 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed Yes | 31c | 3,925$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked Yes | 46c | 3,924$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 16c | 3,898$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,260.88 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 58c | 3,668$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 61c | 3,640$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.26 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9e…1f51backed No | 2c | 3,323$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…fe79backed Yes | 33c | 3,314$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.56 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90a…d094backed Yes | 31c | 3,193$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 64c | 3,159$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.21 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 30c | 3,132$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.22 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed No | 62c | 3,107$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 59c | 3,047$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.81 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 42c | 3,023$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.01 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 19c | 3,022$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.31 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 33c | 3,000$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.97 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes | 35c | 2,661$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…7733backed No | 77c | 2,524$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.81 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 29c | 2,403$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 58c | 2,400$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.99 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 73c | 2,331$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.05 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 6c | 2,297$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…312fbacked No | 2c | 2,289$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 30c | 2,265$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 65c | 2,251$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.18 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 39c | 2,196$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.03 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 60c | 2,195$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.7 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…318abacked Yes | 21c | 2,168$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…2896backed Yes | 10c | 2,114$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +486.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,111$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.43 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 23c | 2,101$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.59 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed No | 79c | 2,100$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.45 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 73c | 2,091$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…b920backed Yes | 14c | 2,076$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…3787backed No | 3c | 2,027$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked Yes | 44c | 2,019$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…69aabacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked No | 2c | 1,995$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 9c | 1,994$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.53 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 2c | 1,953$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 37c | 1,842$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.28 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…132bbacked No | 1c | 1,760$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 1,739$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.03 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…0432backed Yes | 7c | 1,714$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.