Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dda38b3bdc54eb87db0eae3c6aae2ac8730e36a1131f68d3a23ffca28c4f3a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $876,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $876,322 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 17c | 34,572$5,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,824.09 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 10c | 19,462$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.62 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed No | 5c | 18,565$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.46 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 24c | 18,466$4,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,471.08 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 80c | 17,177$13,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,485.39 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 14,567$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.92 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 12c | 14,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked No | 9c | 11,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.99 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 14c | 10,820$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.5 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 76c | 10,633$8,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.95 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 10,362$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 77c | 9,635$7,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.11 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 8,068$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.39 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed No | 4c | 7,977$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.02 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 27c | 7,633$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.75 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 77c | 7,410$5,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.25 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 27c | 7,288$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.41 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…60abbacked No | 9c | 7,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 11c | 6,640$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.15 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 11c | 6,555$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.25 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 19c | 6,464$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.44 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 6,351$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.76 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 75c | 5,934$4,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cd57backed No | 14c | 5,629$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed No | 1c | 5,529$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 77c | 5,500$4,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.67 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed No | 10c | 5,040$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 13c | 4,981$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.4 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 16c | 4,979$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.36 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 79c | 4,702$3,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.14 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 78c | 4,249$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.63 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…9c32backed No | 16c | 4,208$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 16c | 4,130$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.05 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 7c | 3,935$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes | 77c | 3,800$2,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.25 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 3,774$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.29 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…821fbacked No | 16c | 3,600$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 28c | 3,577$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 28c | 3,570$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.5 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 13c | 3,500$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 17c | 3,378$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.08 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed No | 15c | 3,325$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 11c | 3,158$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed No | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed Yes | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 5c | 3,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed Yes | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…a7c0backed No | 1c | 2,925$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 13c | 2,900$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.65 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…85c5backed No | 14c | 2,848$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 15c | 2,558$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.36 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x327c…86efbacked No | 14c | 2,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed No | 28c | 2,340$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.87 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 10c | 2,340$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.37 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 78c | 2,234$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.48 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 8c | 2,216$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.73 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 76c | 2,147$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.68 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed No | 10c | 2,041$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 20c | 2,033$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…8381backed Yes | 77c | 2,011$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 18c | 2,001$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.33 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 77c | 1,980$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.76 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…8905backed No | 11c | 1,950$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 14c | 1,948$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 7c | 1,941$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 15c | 1,940$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.8 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 29c | 1,927$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.97 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed Yes | 77c | 1,821$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 26c | 1,798$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.9 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…1f26backed No | 12c | 1,712$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…0c32backed No | 28c | 1,694$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed No | 7c | 1,688$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,675$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 23c | 1,671$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.73 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 14c | 1,630$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.19 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…8985backed No | 7c | 1,601$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739b…349dbacked No | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 15c | 1,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 14c | 1,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 11c | 1,493$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 36c | 1,443$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.57 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 23c | 1,427$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.91 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…8e3bbacked No | 11c | 1,426$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…6bc3backed No | 14c | 1,400$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…1a14backed No | 19c | 1,399$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 9c | 1,398$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…99a1backed No | 14c | 1,396$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 23c | 1,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked No | 26c | 1,292$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 12c | 1,290$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 20c | 1,281$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…eaabbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 18c | 1,242$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed No | 17c | 1,235$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 1,232$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.