Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4384916c16a5e787b1752a5c4a775037c2d91e4f0b6f03960e3b2d267e1095a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 37c | 8,934$3,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,293.78 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 65c | 2,821$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.59 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 27c | 2,625$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.21 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 66c | 2,483$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.24 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 25c | 1,767$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.77 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 71c | 1,578$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.15 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 60c | 1,231$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.08 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 27c | 1,203$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.78 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 12c | 1,042$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 1,028$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.93 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 74c | 950$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 76c | 900$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked Yes | 71c | 816.84$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 724.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 68c | 708.42$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.12 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…87bcbacked Yes | 76c | 657.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 54c | 654.47$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.02 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 50c | 601.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 33c | 600$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 68c | 588.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 58c | 568.28$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.68 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed No | 62c | 530.08$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 68c | 527.19$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…eaabbacked No | 22c | 444.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked No | 64c | 424$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 36c | 424$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 43c | 410.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.68 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 38c | 388$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 28c | 374.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 68c | 373.38$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.33 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8d45backed Yes | 55c | 362.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 33c | 331.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 54c | 312.19$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.69 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed No | 24c | 304.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 68c | 303.51$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…7b26backed No | 33c | 303.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…3e64backed Yes | 70c | 284.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…7277backed Yes | 71c | 283.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…8194backed Yes | 37c | 267.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 262.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 41c | 250.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 5c | 222.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…e942backed No | 59c | 220$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 70c | 215.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 212.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 26c | 191.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 69c | 191.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 73c | 179.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…66a2backed Yes | 70c | 175.61$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…4806backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde83…8b00backed No | 41c | 171.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…fcc8backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 77c | 149.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…194ebacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 46c | 140.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f684backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 124.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9970…3b6bbacked Yes | 75c | 121.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…7819backed No | 33c | 120.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…ae82backed No | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…b5b3backed Yes | 67c | 118.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 37c | 108.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…2c7cbacked Yes | 70c | 107.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…29f2backed Yes | 73c | 106.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 31c | 96.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 67c | 93.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…6c06backed Yes | 66c | 83.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 21c | 81.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972d…d9a8backed No | 25c | 80.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 65c | 70.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked Yes | 78c | 69.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…89fdbacked Yes | 72c | 69.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 77c | 65.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked No | 64c | 59.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 23c | 58.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4e…a436backed Yes | 74c | 54.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…d415backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…0fd5backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 25c | 46.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbf…b6e2backed No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…dbf9backed Yes | 80c | 43.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 54c | 39.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.