Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc805ceca084cb91861c1102a72642e1e0da094d2aa6278cbb4e751c64ad825f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,023 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 57c | 8,489$4,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.92 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 36c | 6,767$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.49 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…5d93backed Yes | 67c | 5,297$3,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 40c | 2,826$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.41 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 42c | 2,086$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.74 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 2,018$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.08 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed No | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked Yes | 65c | 1,935$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 47c | 1,849$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.99 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 36c | 1,670$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.85 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,658$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,609$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…3263backed Yes | 58c | 1,600$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 64c | 1,562$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.58 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked No | 35c | 1,559$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Yes | 70c | 1,439$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,386$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.8 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked No | 70c | 1,334$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.56 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked No | 42c | 1,313$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.22 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…e6e3backed Yes | 60c | 1,221$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 39c | 1,200$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed No | 49c | 1,190$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,124$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.47 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 5c | 1,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,042$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.14 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…2a2fbacked No | 38c | 1,039$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 45c | 1,036$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.97 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 48c | 1,015$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.79 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…2949backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…69aabacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 34c | 962.05$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.98 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 38c | 954.03$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.37 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes | 63c | 799.99$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 57c | 793.52$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.64 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…001ebacked Yes | 80c | 787.55$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 66c | 766.54$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.62 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 51c | 762.12$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.66 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…4806backed No | 42c | 761.47$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 18c | 725.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 43c | 705.96$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.21 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 42c | 701.31$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.07 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed No | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked Yes | 70c | 669$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e0…6829backed No | 41c | 643.43$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 621.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…b22dbacked Yes | 48c | 619.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 67c | 615.04$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.96 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 44c | 600$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 586.89$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 33c | 563.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 31c | 550$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 40c | 529.98$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.79 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 50c | 503.74$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 39c | 501.06$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.49 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes | 55c | 492.73$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.73 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cd57backed No | 41c | 485.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…cd39backed Yes | 47c | 483.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.62 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…ac75backed No | 42c | 480.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 59c | 474.14$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…2894backed No | 39c | 460.97$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 52c | 455.82$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.83 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 58c | 443.11$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.31 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 433.16$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.03 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…b8fabacked Yes | 54c | 420$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 39c | 418.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.39 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 50c | 414.18$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.81 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 37c | 404.43$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 34c | 400$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed No | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 37c | 400$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 57c | 376.39$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 57c | 354.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed No | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 35c | 333.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 70c | 331.73$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf52…b600backed No | 4c | 328.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…5a8cbacked No | 39c | 328.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…3e64backed Yes | 66c | 303.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…eaabbacked No | 34c | 298.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…29c9backed Yes | 68c | 295.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 59c | 290$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 67c | 286.65$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed No | 43c | 285.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 285.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…7819backed No | 35c | 282.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 57c | 280.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 72c | 277.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…9eb9backed Yes | 74c | 271.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 12c | 270$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b88…e454backed No | 53c | 267.19$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.