TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe02…b22d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst F1 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT2850%14 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+144.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$533.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$611.11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+103.1%+$505.25
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+157.9%+$789.44
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+2,962.6%+$12,887.21
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,524Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+240.4%+$3,663.69
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,354Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+633.7%+$8,578.21
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+74.2%+$121.51
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+106.2%+$318.9
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$161.54
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+93.3%+$279.96
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
F1 — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+87%+$87.04
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.1%+$36.03
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.2
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.06
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$139.01
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+86.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+107%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valencia vs. Panathinaikosbacked Panathinaikos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Maccabi Tel Avivbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$188.14
Monaco vs. Olympiacos B.C.backed Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$371.43
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,841Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,841
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.