F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e9dcd05af695295f6c2249593f03edf0003bd5ff92068fc5c2cbd6020478bbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ed…9f94backed Yes | 3c | 5,297$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 70c | 5,035$3,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.7 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 30c | 2,846$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…1475backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…3ddebacked Yes | 8c | 848.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 27c | 807.53$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 7c | 600.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…5692backed Yes | 6c | 581.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…b22dbacked Yes | 9c | 575.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 71c | 575.41$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.76 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 553.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 521.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…3e26backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 79c | 494.79$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 18c | 494.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 11c | 482.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 74c | 452.52$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…656ebacked Yes | 26c | 395.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a2…0ccfbacked Yes | 5c | 368.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 32c | 355.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 39c | 334.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Yes | 7c | 324$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 7c | 319.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 312.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…4847backed Yes | 39c | 254.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 72c | 250.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…02e5backed Yes | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 37c | 220$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…2e4ebacked Yes | 6c | 202.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…2fd5backed Yes | 14c | 177.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed No | 62c | 166.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 37c | 157.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 13c | 157.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…7d6cbacked Yes | 39c | 150.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…88b8backed Yes | 39c | 149.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 33c | 139.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 133.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…258dbacked Yes | 15c | 128.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e6…4846backed Yes | 40c | 125.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…a588backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 14c | 110.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…0054backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 72.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 24c | 61.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +249%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…58aabacked Yes | 40c | 57.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…6ba9backed Yes | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bce…7dbebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…a9d7backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…fb79backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 36c | 39.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…2453backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 35.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…3c09backed Yes | 35c | 33.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…9dbabacked Yes | 39c | 31.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…4b96backed Yes | 42c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 26.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…45adbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.