F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a074521eafcd0c6ebecc8d806bb5fd31ffac5376320572f61fa7fea5205c55f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 11c | 4,040$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.25 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046f…4680backed Yes | 15c | 2,419$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a27…dae3backed Yes | 2c | 1,839$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…87c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…b22dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,353$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,294$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…c39bbacked Yes | 10c | 999.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…3ddebacked Yes | 6c | 911.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes | 8c | 712.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed Yes | 9c | 704.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…45adbacked Yes | 5c | 672.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 9c | 614.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…5692backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a2…0ccfbacked Yes | 4c | 499.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996f…e3d2backed Yes | 10c | 485$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f97…87c8backed Yes | 7c | 358.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaed…7144backed Yes | 10c | 313.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Yes | 5c | 299.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…8136backed Yes | 7c | 295.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…8161backed Yes | 10c | 290.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 12c | 272.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 11c | 265.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…4fb9backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 11c | 180.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 175.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeae…60a1backed Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 15c | 109.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6bc6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…0054backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…fa07backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 20c | 59.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.