TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x42ab…3e26

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kraken vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$5.14
Canucks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$14.51
Kings vs. Flamesbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.83
Ducks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.18
Blues vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.15
Kraken vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$122.09
Rangers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.09
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Avalanche vs. Flamesbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$327Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$227.14
Penguins vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$101.08
Ducks vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$144.65
Canadiens vs. Flyersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$660
Capitals vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.16
Kings vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.18
Avalanche vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.86
Sabres vs. Blackhawksbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Red Wings vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$159.02
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$43.16
Rangers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$102
All 19 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$8.97
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.5
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+227.5%+$106.21
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.58
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$409Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$408.52
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.77
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+140.2%+$127.51
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.08
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.27
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.3
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,332Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+142.1%+$1,893.05
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$488Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$487.5
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$330
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
All 16 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.1
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$86.14
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$92.55
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$31.91
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.51
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.17
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.02
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.09
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.37
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$586Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$585.86
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$812Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$564.28
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+43.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,613Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,612.57
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$393.8
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$434.04
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,426Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,426.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+325.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+325.6%+$1,300.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$682.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.