TailMyPicks
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No76c8,401$6,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.663,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Yes36c7,756$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,792850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes39c4,786$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.2928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No61c3,825$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.3669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked No68c3,676$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.411762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No63c3,471$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2821,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No65c3,106$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.2516652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No69c2,777$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.9422669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed No75c2,640$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.275964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes39c2,606$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.3934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes35c2,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87515742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked No69c2,043$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.326761.2%41 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f84…be62backed Yes13c1,768$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes9c1,670$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2764043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes30c1,513$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.3940744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No70c1,333$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.739476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No63c1,300$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4816647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Yes39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003941%16 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes28c1,054$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.233737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3706549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Yes13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.686844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No63c943.35$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.5556951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed No69c869.93$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.935375.5%40 W · 13 L+10.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+41.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked No62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0178…3f7abacked No69c700$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2155246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes16c644.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Yes39c641.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b3…53b9backed Yes40c611$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.42352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes11c599.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.851225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes36c527.78$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaac8…b6f1backed Yes39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7065…5292backed Yes40c501.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+77.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1858950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1858949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1857050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No63c460$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.28851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No63c459.98$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No63c457.78$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3820845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb020…92f3backed No64c437$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.321127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed No66c435.6$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.13345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x923c…6d03backed Yes30c408.6$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.465131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No66c400$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No64c390$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.47335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed Yes15c374.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7312141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No64c349.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3116846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.55349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked No61c312$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6814652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+55.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked No63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1115650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No62c272.2$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6633047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked Yes36c263.89$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes36c255.61$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.021030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No63c242.8$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.845451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No62c202.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3342046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7d…2669backed No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8829…cfcfbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0163…9aa0backed No61c199.93$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.975156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes35c184.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6727138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Yes14c176$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.645653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Yes24c172.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.326232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf692…dd55backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2917547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes17c160.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9928822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No75c159.16$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5311956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Yes40c151.8$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.722853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No60c151.49$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c09…f399backed No65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x024f…2df9backed Yes34c146.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502025%5 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fca…819abacked Yes34c140.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.92035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No62c139$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.171,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes40c131.34$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.787538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No64c121.66$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9839857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14c3…0262backed Yes14c121.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Yes10c119.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes37c109.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6329855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes14c100.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a16…5f47backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386055%33 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3813555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…132ebacked No62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No65c92.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.311447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9f…8e23backed Yes36c90.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Yes35c85.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b3…7239backed Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…2193backed No65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.921361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No61c74.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9226445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Yes34c72.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.831758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Yes33c69.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Yes34c69.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5221355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked No77c66.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.587959.5%47 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418f…5f3bbacked No72c64.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37c…189abacked Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x418b…3a98backed Yes35c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…44efbacked Yes39c62.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Yes31c61.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.156355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec17…44bcbacked No66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.