TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd37c…189a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT4957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.61
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$19.26
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.14
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.93
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.42
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+132.6%+$66.28
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Villarreal CF vs. FC København end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+88.7%+$41.68
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will AFC Ajax vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+44.9%+$26.96
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$36.5
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+28.2%+$21.15
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+63.9%+$15.98
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$19.94
SSC Napoli vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$18.03
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$34.52
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.47
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.93
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.49
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.54
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.12
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$12
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+51.5%+$7.73
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$22.46
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$18.39
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$11.23
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Sweden win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Germany win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$15.79
Will Austria win on 2025-10-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$7.97
All 9 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+203%+$21.44
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.46
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$17.04
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$10.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Sep 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.