Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x479cd32ce54efa60b5332818d15054ff6f923727f1d10165da9b50271181057e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,744 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,450$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 5c | 3,800$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,100$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 5c | 3,050$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 14c | 2,700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 1,156$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 44c | 1,155$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 46c | 966$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 908$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 46c | 841$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 54c | 838$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 54c | 833$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 54c | 789$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 62c | 715.47$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.24 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 62c | 681.38$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.9 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed No | 46c | 653$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 56c | 584$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 56c | 571$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 201.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 39c | 199.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…9ca9backed No | 52c | 182$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…b918backed No | 55c | 181.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…285cbacked No | 45c | 181$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 165.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e18…191abacked Yes | 38c | 163$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…b54abacked Yes | 62c | 160.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…dc2dbacked Yes | 38c | 157$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde40…c9fdbacked Yes | 38c | 153$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…1e4abacked Yes | 38c | 152$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…0e52backed Yes | 38c | 124$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…834abacked No | 49c | 113.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 63c | 108$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…c3a4backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 99.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 99.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…f9d1backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…c416backed No | 62c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3777…a640backed No | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…886fbacked No | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…9cf2backed No | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…c080backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136b…b79dbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…e223backed No | 62c | 89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…a532backed Yes | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 40c | 64.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7df…1d0dbacked Yes | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 45c | 52.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8578…c4acbacked Yes | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 31c | 46.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…a75bbacked Yes | 61c | 40.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 29c | 38.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 61c | 38.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4904…65f2backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 32.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 42c | 30.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 61c | 27.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 38c | 27.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc2…e5e6backed Yes | 42c | 23.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 70c | 23.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 59c | 20.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc854…eef3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…189abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the March Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the March Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?Yes won
- Will three people dissent the March Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.