Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe4a69e738960432427599dd7ad8a9759fa7a0f38a42d033c763a6da0858bb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 3c | 5,900$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 4c | 4,100$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 3c | 3,850$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 8c | 3,100$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…8dc0backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…b775backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 775.84$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.33 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 495$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 33c | 370.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1,065.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 41c | 295.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 27c | 274.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 27c | 259.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 63c | 239.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 72c | 194$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…29cabacked No | 66c | 185$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…17d9backed No | 66c | 185$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…579cbacked No | 66c | 174$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…039bbacked No | 66c | 173$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…88c7backed No | 66c | 163$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 124$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…6babbacked Yes | 44c | 118.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…e8e3backed Yes | 51c | 103.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 99.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 66.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 62.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 66c | 59.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 53.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b3…2367backed Yes | 37c | 44.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 36.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 35.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 46c | 34.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 56c | 31.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f52…9fbabacked No | 56c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 71c | 18.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the March Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the March Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the March Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.