Fed Rates · resolved market
Will three people dissent the March Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf31042a7e097b22c5e09d3c1d2d163d38dcaf218be212e2d9e36a1e7a9ac93d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,108 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 8c | 2,315$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 13c | 1,264$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.01 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 660.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 10c | 640.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1,065.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 12c | 499.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 12c | 349$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 11c | 292.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 17c | 220.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 10c | 211.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 10c | 211.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 199.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 14c | 186.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…7295backed Yes | 17c | 166.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 15c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 14c | 124.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…09bebacked Yes | 20c | 121.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 113.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…260cbacked Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 14c | 71.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…2800backed Yes | 19c | 53.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…25a3backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will three people dissent the March Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the March Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the March Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?Yes won
- Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.