Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde1bcc66938e7784e7dff73e6801ae6a4d70a01992211de2fdce1ae065faa31e

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,380 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	13c	6,530$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.57	151	50.3%76 W · 75 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes	11c	5,215$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.94	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	2,950$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes	34c	1,083$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.86	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	27c	1,007$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.97	343	33.5%115 W · 228 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No	47c	915.99$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$481.14	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes	10c	861.34$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.61	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+68.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes	12c	810.73$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.4	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes	9c	534.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	18c	519$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.06	196	31.1%61 W · 135 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a3…c352backed Yes	13c	509.97$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	30c	499.75$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.18	75	34.7%26 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes	29c	490.2$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.27	228	33.8%77 W · 151 L	+13.7wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed Yes	10c	453.02$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.3	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	28c	348$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.44	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	56c	315$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.7	272	22.1%60 W · 212 L	-15.0wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	19c	300.83$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes	34c	300$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes	9c	275.6$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	63	11.1%7 W · 56 L	-8.4wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x437b…0f0bbacked No	76c	272.53$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.41	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	76cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	68c	271$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.72	96	46.9%45 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	18c	267.06$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.83	154	31.2%48 W · 106 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No	72c	230.01$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.5	86	38.4%33 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	27c	213.13$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.1	248	31%77 W · 171 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes	12c	208$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0d…1961backed Yes	49c	203.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	26c	203.66$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.63	68	26.5%18 W · 50 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	78c	202.98$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.15	171	40.4%69 W · 102 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x686d…1a68backed Yes	21c	201.16$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.63	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	+5.8wins	+0.13per pick	25cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	40c	200$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	244	33.2%81 W · 163 L	+11.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	16c	199.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	21c	191.89$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.45	210	33.3%70 W · 140 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	26c	183.62$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	334	21.9%73 W · 261 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa34…c08ebacked Yes	18c	180$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	78c	177.17$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.5	449	35.2%158 W · 291 L	-37.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x644f…4f1dbacked Yes	22c	175.41$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2925…d61dbacked Yes	12c	168.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes	28c	167.6$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.58	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes	57c	159$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.91	228	48.7%111 W · 117 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	152.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	182	3.8%7 W · 175 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	62c	145.05$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.5	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	15c	135$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	98	19.4%19 W · 79 L	-10.3wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes	32c	122.32$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.23	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	+8.6wins	+0.15per pick	32cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes	16c	110.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	23c	97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	494	11.5%57 W · 437 L	-17.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	68c	84.23$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.22	109	46.8%51 W · 58 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No	68c	81.64$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.11	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-5.0wins	-0.15per pick	53cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes	61c	80$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-34%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No	70c	75$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.88	180	41.1%74 W · 106 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes	31c	72.59$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.67	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdba6…7f18backed Yes	19c	72.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes	30c	71$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a6…c753backed Yes	18c	65.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	65c	62.1$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.83	109	47.7%52 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	44c	60$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	341	29.3%100 W · 241 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Yes	66c	60$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-4.0wins	-0.36per pick	55cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No	74c	60$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-7.0wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes	62c	60$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	24c	53.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	332	38.6%128 W · 204 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-30%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d5…32a1backed Yes	45c	52.18$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed No	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fb…58e2backed No	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No	46c	47.6$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	61	32.8%20 W · 41 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	48c	47$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	122	31.1%38 W · 84 L	-9.5wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	24c	46.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	135	46.7%63 W · 72 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	47c	41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.66	182	37.4%68 W · 114 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	54c	40.95$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.88	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37c…189abacked No	42c	40.48$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed Yes	58c	34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No	56c	33.38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.85	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	70c	32.5$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0446…cc69backed Yes	50c	31.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	40c	30.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	81	32.1%26 W · 55 L	-8.8wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	90	10%9 W · 81 L	-20.0wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	70c	27$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.12	95	78.9%75 W · 20 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	74cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	57c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	205	42%86 W · 119 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No	76c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.95	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acc…42cebacked Yes	54c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.9	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes	53c	19.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	71c	18.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.36	152	32.9%50 W · 102 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No	74c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.9	120	49.2%59 W · 61 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?this page
Will Dale Holness be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?No won
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?Yes won
Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event