TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$300,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Yes30c128,132$38,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,439.646358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No70c40,743$28,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,246.211,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No70c17,600$12,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2805440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No71c16,561$11,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,769.2428345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No75c14,729$11,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,703.293,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Yes28c14,192$3,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,973.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No73c13,761$10,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,655.322,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No70c12,294$8,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,688.81,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6426…ff48backed No70c6,700$4,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No70c5,106$3,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.8838646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No70c4,464$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf919…3241backed Yes28c4,323$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Yes12c4,215$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d1…bc55backed Yes12c4,167$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked No72c4,013$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.091968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+128.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No70c3,200$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9606549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No70c3,200$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed No70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9003073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked No69c2,560$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No70c2,400$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7205843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No74c2,397$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.671,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc079…8accbacked Yes32c2,320$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.41936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Yes30c1,933$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No73c1,740$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.473046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No69c1,708$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.7529855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes11c1,700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.895024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Yes18c1,621$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked No68c1,609$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.993250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No71c1,432$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.7720845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No70c1,400$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4206744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Yes29c1,385$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.697254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes30c1,335$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0326445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed No70c1,200$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.038158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No70c1,200$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3605944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd261…b663backed Yes2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e9…239bbacked Yes34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes29c1,102$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.532832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed No70c1,081$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes32c999.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203050%15 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked Yes10c999.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No68c900$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.9117247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da9…7120backed No71c887.22$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Yes29c862.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No70c816$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed No70c787.95$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.382050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Yes29c767.62$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.61728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No68c700$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2248950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes19c693.69$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9664043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes33c651.6$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4811447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No68c650$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2088949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No70c640$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1925451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Yes32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes33c600$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19610251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1928851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No70c600$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1806647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No70c600$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe704…b250backed No58c582.02$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.78887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.38per pick49cpaid+108.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74bb…3b52backed Yes47c582$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Yes32c568.76$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes2c553.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes30c549$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.714652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked No59c514.88$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.31266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb537…fa1ebacked Yes29c499.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes17c485.62$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9214315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed No70c480$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1445046%23 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No70c480$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1446446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No70c480$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1445745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked No70c480$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1445650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No73c470.75$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.12055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No68c456.71$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes33c403.02$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes30c400.02$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0111354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1206549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed No70c393$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.92853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No70c391.5$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9611956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3944…6470backed Yes32c391.38$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.246041.7%25 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Yes32c390.63$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ff…38c2backed Yes28c361.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+120.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbb…7e44backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec2…08afbacked Yes28c342.79$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.982250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No70c320$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed No70c320$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes28c314.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+147.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e79…9076backed Yes9c312.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No72c309.59$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6940744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a7a…9ca2backed Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a7…b778backed Yes12c291.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5465…ba43backed No71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.694062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No70c280$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No70c280$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes34c265.72$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.047538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed No78c254.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.015457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38e…8917backed No79c251$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.464759.6%28 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed No79c250.65$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.396264.5%40 W · 22 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf439…bf9cbacked No53c232.94$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.483647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked No74c228.55$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.972532%8 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.