TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4408…1b6abacked Yes24c22,380$5,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,371.23743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes25c17,768$4,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,493.731968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+128.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No76c17,424$13,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,212.4828345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No76c11,986$9,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.747255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes25c11,410$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.4348141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No75c6,082$4,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.012,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No76c4,673$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.611,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Yes18c3,153$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.9250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No76c2,665$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.5738646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc079…8accbacked Yes23c2,320$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.651936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe54…3eddbacked Yes24c2,058$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-62.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes20c1,916$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2764043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No76c1,550$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.1214315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked Yes20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes21c938.1$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19724132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No75c763.7$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.9133737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes24c700$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1683050%15 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No80c682.26$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.073,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked No79c645.87$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.633557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes24c630$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed No76c620.2$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.851258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Yes24c495.83$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1193132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c1b…63ddbacked Yes20c490.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed No76c456$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.445349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No80c449.96$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.858451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes23c434.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0510942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes22c409.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5453140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes25c409.35$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8826445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No76c362.25$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9442046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes24c358$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.922240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes18c342.48$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5210026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No76c320$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes21c297.81$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5414642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed No77c276.24$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.542540%10 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13ad…241bbacked No76c267.53$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.211070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f8…2928backed Yes23c259.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.62114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x738b…0431backed Yes20c251.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-25.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa590…271cbacked Yes21c244.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yes20c241.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.220645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No78c237.58$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.32055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No75c228.18$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7240744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Yes21c214$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.942231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8499…950dbacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+110.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19b3…7239backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No76c201.51$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No77c188.68$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.46755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed No78c152.62$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.87365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Yes20c149.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.375356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes25c148$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3714652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes12c146.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6422245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No75c146.87$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8339857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes27c146$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.191942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes15c135.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.575230.8%16 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+193.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x71ff…6465backed Yes25c134.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No77c130$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.917247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.616343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes16c111.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4528822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd3a…3203backed No77c111.04$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.541154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bf…ee06backed Yes24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes21c102.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.68517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes24c98.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5d…fbb3backed No77c98.28$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.61861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Yes17c96.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.033557.1%20 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No79c85.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2612832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a0c…3f90backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f63…a727backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes25c79.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb94e…f954backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Yes24c71.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9412056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b6b…3962backed Yes24c71.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed No76c60.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.522450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Yes21c60.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.644238.1%16 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No76c60.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4420251%103 W · 99 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.210956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No76c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes22c48.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.731,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…7f6cbacked Yes24c48.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc17e…b39abacked Yes24c46.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed No77c46.24$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.647538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes23c45.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked No77c42.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.692871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x628d…a012backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b67…829fbacked No80c31.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.256937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked No78c22.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.996046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4436…cf98backed No76c20.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.021963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc92…8d1dbacked No75c17.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.