TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,122 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fee…ed5ebacked No48c17,407$8,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,085.441361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes54c12,722$6,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,902.2915445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes42c4,174$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.0221161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes13c2,606$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.5124433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No42c2,339$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.9234333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No48c2,167$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.213026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes11c2,101$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.697534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0208042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25bf…825abacked Yes66c1,687$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.47366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No42c1,634$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.425133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes17c1,477$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.75044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No41c1,294$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.162924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No40c872.53$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.86650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No49c784.53$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.255547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c751.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5413625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes4c686.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No41c645.66$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.0510048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes48c523.35$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0116544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes65c516.8$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.33961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes60c500$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.263458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes25c490.2$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9919643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c481.41$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7533421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed Yes15c478.25$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.592450%12 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes59c465.98$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8712643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes58c461$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0419631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes65c460.94$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff0f…c5efbacked No58c439.14$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa22…5e49backed No49c412.95$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No75c356$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99eb…0464backed Yes50c319.05$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes34c231.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3827222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Yes73c219$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes22c209.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.513818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…bc44backed Yes67c207.9$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes70c202$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3945035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No40c169.23$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.478051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed Yes14c168$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No70c161$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.35561.8%34 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No74c152.7$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7513647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes37c140$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.85747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes20c139.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.982821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No53c136.67$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5534129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes60c135.35$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.072842.9%12 W · 16 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-35.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes60c134.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.996235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a5…5097backed No66c130.09$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes47c112$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.327852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes80c105.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51df…8f22backed Yes40c102.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.83944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1206…1362backed No34c102$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.995444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x643c…3fc2backed Yes15c101$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.561030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd392…dbf7backed Yes76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes52c91.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5318041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503540%14 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No45c82.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.431560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No49c81.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e4…d097backed Yes63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x437b…0f0bbacked No80c76.56$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.311060%6 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No24c75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5718310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37c…189abacked Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No48c68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.168343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04d5…188fbacked No25c66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.783363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No25c66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae1f…04f1backed Yes30c65.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0150%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes75c61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7520542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No28c58.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.051040%4 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+45.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb6c…1838backed Yes44c57.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No38c50.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.382552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes53c50.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.672075%15 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dad…1838backed Yes21c50.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d94…6c48backed Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes66c48.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.294238.1%16 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes52c48.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No48c47.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.398718.4%16 W · 71 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes53c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.791747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8221…22bcbacked Yes78c45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No61c44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.167447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.810340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.95255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No56c39.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x39d8…d5acbacked Yes56c36.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No44c36.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.681553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…0e42backed Yes51c35.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No39c34.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9210361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No40c32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.213317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd43e…49c3backed Yes34c31.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.94650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b8…c19bbacked Yes75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5428…38ecbacked Yes53c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes40c25.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2416020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c30…d8abbacked No60c24.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.621090%9 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick70cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No52c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.521827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x175d…23a0backed No49c23.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed Yes66c21.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc5e…3873backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474a…c816backed No51c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+37.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes52c19.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9cb1…ec7cbacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.