Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c570239957b8a969d348deccf9741f071247b7294d36ffe00c750beb3715e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes | 38c | 15,671$5,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,739.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 49c | 3,446$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.05 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 78c | 2,860$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.49 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…8b87backed Yes | 71c | 2,685$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 40c | 2,642$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.75 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 51c | 1,969$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.19 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 40c | 1,673$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.92 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 57c | 1,656$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.71 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 69c | 1,557$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.32 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…db55backed Yes | 48c | 1,153$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 58c | 940.6$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.88 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 26c | 876.63$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.66 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 12c | 873.66$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 57c | 847.53$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 29c | 800.14$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.65 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 32c | 799.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 616$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.33 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 25c | 554$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…1461backed Yes | 49c | 420$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 31c | 410.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 9c | 380$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 24c | 356$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 355.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 346.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 67c | 337.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 41c | 318.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 37c | 308$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.16 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 25c | 301.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 36c | 272$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 177.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 49c | 173.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 169.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…258dbacked No | 59c | 168.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 52c | 163.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed No | 53c | 159.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…bc44backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 26c | 126$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 27c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 52c | 108.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 31c | 104.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8f22backed Yes | 51c | 102.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 101.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 45c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 33c | 77.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…22bcbacked Yes | 26c | 72.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 75c | 69.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 23c | 61.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 52c | 55.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 26c | 51.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 49.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 44c | 49.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +263.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 46.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 80c | 42.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 49c | 40.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…d5acbacked Yes | 39c | 36.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 36.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…bab9backed Yes | 70c | 25.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…40c5backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 54c | 21.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 21.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 20.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 18.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 59c | 18.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?this page
- Will Evangelos Argyrakis be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?No won
- Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?No won
- Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.