Champions League · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65441191372e2e1247de94e69ec1ef52bfabba8a17aa985508cc313fc9e8de65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 2,694$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.85 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 74c | 1,686$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.89 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…2478backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 39c | 1,292$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 917.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 33c | 898.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 647$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…81b8backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Yes | 25c | 531$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.05 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 278.81$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 17c | 238.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 31c | 218.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 288 | 40.3%116 W · 172 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 26c | 154$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 27c | 150.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f444backed Yes | 29c | 134.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 15c | 101.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…189abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 27c | 94.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d94…5d78backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 73c | 77.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…5564backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 75c | 69.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…d5b8backed No | 77c | 69.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed No | 73c | 69.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 24c | 60.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ce…f0b8backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 24c | 57.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…fab2backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…69d5backed No | 75c | 50.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…f0bcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…d003backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…8964backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 23c | 48.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3f…ba6cbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…ed05backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Yes | 26c | 40.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…dd33backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…6565backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…11d5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…e65cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f45…2149backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…5031backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb705…57c7backed No | 77c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-05?No won
- Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.