TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x942c…fb3a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: La Liga, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 55 out of 100; worst Champions League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST5653.6%30 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,030.36
Wizards vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,030Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+44.9%+$462.92
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
Thunder vs. Trail Blazersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$3,500
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+81.8%+$163.64
Pelicans vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Rockets vs. Grizzliesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+33.9%+$135.7
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+100%+$500
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+63.9%+$319.67
Spread: Celtics (-10.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+66.7%+$200
Nets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Spread: Pacers (-6.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Jazz vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+26.6%+$79.75
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+88.7%+$354.72
76ers vs. Cavaliersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+96.1%+$192.16
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+100%+$200
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+69.5%+$138.98
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+35.1%+$105.41
Hornets vs. Pelicansbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$13.16
76ers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+25%+$125
Spread: Clippers (-7.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+113.4%+$453.49
Will AFC Ajax vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+42.9%+$171.43
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+47.1%+$188.24
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$800
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$186.08
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$212.66
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$900
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+81.8%+$409.09
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+63.9%+$127.87
SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+72.4%+$289.66
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)backed SSC Napoli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$300
All 18 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+56.3%+$337.5
Will Real Betis vs. Mallorca end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Alaves vs. Espanyol end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Alaves win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+150%+$750
Will Levante UD vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+132.6%+$662.79
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+36.7%+$1,469.48
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+163.4%+$2,450.41
Will Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$675
Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$2,897.26
Will Getafe win on 2025-10-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$275
Getafe vs. Girona: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$488
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+59.5%+$1,487.1
Will Real Betis vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,488Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$4,142.77
Will Real Madrid vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 16 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+55.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Barcelona vs. Olimpia Milanobacked Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$653Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$253.89
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Real Madridbacked Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$975Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$975
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$3,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,095
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.