NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc858ddcfdfb0d87739ccad6473949093b54d41241c83d6e7381e35a5e57670a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $786,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $791,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $786,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Thunder | 51c | 575,829$291,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284,671.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 49c | 162,821$79,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,960.07 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 49c | 144,909$71,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,570.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked Clippers | 50c | 109,378$54,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,688.89 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Clippers | 51c | 69,598$35,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,494.82 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Clippers | 50c | 64,248$31,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,876.24 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Thunder | 49c | 35,000$17,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,850 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Thunder | 51c | 32,562$16,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,797.43 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Clippers | 48c | 30,000$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Clippers | 49c | 20,068$9,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,832.96 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Clippers | 52c | 12,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,239.99 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Clippers | 50c | 11,803$5,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,884.89 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Clippers | 51c | 10,681$5,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,402.3 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccca…3b2bbacked Clippers | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Clippers | 52c | 7,413$3,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.5 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Clippers | 50c | 5,297$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.6 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Clippers | 53c | 4,137$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.36 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Clippers | 50c | 3,901$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.88 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 49c | 3,745$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.97 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Thunder | 49c | 3,096$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.92 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 50c | 3,015$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Clippers | 51c | 2,730$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Clippers | 49c | 2,147$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.16 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Clippers | 51c | 1,630$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.3 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Clippers | 51c | 1,000$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Clippers | 51c | 955$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.5 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Clippers | 49c | 800$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 48c | 622.49$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.7 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 49c | 550$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Thunder | 49c | 540.82$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.82 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Clippers | 49c | 507.23$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.54 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Clippers | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.68 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers | 50c | 491.01$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.23 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5478backed Clippers | 50c | 410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Thunder | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Clippers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Thunder | 50c | 397.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.6 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…fea3backed Clippers | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Thunder | 48c | 283.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Thunder | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Clippers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 60c | 133$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…31c8backed Thunder | 49c | 106.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Clippers | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 48c | 86.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…c04ebacked Thunder | 50c | 75.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Clippers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Clippers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Clippers | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Clippers | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Thunder | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…fde2backed Clippers | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Thunder | 49c | 35.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…f84ebacked Clippers | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Clippers | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…197abacked Clippers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Clippers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. ClippersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.