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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,795 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x145c…43bcbacked Thunder54c10,233$5,526 inWon+$4,707.34977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+51.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccca…3b2bbacked Clippers46c4,711$2,158 inLost-$2,158.172330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Clippers45c4,628$2,082 inLost-$2,082.441,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers46c4,323$2,006 inLost-$2,005.739,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Thunder55c3,000$1,650 inWon+$1,35022752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Thunder53c2,507$1,318 inWon+$1,188.62,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Clippers48c1,421$682 inLost-$682.0820248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Clippers52c1,042$542 inLost-$54250754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Clippers46c503$231 inLost-$231.383,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Clippers46c503$231 inLost-$231.382,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Clippers45c404$182 inLost-$181.88,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Thunder50c400$200 inWon+$20026150.2%131 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Thunder54c370.35$200 inWon+$170.3638942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Thunder49c367.35$180 inWon+$187.3524533.9%83 W · 162 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f36…f27abacked Thunder55c363.64$200 inWon+$163.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+66%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers49c235.54$115 inLost-$114.5580148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Thunder55c200$110 inWon+$907261.1%44 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4efb…76a0backed Thunder55c183.64$101 inWon+$82.643641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder52c160.7$84 inWon+$77.172,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Thunder51c120.09$61 inWon+$58.845339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Thunder54c100$54 inWon+$4616547.3%78 W · 87 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Thunder48c100$48 inWon+$5237357.4%214 W · 159 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed Clippers46c100$46 inLost-$4612050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x162e…94a4backed Thunder50c80$40 inWon+$402330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-39.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Clippers52c76.92$40 inLost-$4048451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8328…0a5cbacked Thunder55c54.55$30 inWon+$24.5536842.4%156 W · 212 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Thunder51c51.02$26 inWon+$252,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88bf…591abacked Clippers49c51.02$25 inLost-$256238.7%24 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e0f…7037backed Thunder53c44.75$24 inWon+$21.033243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Thunder50c41.06$21 inWon+$20.533638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Thunder50c40$20 inWon+$204235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2337…3a2cbacked Thunder50c30.02$15 inWon+$15.012755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+50.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd15d…c293backed Thunder50c20.06$10 inWon+$10.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2278…8270backed Thunder50c20$10 inWon+$101145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.