TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,590 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder51c698$357 inWon+$340.938,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers36c495$178 inLost-$178.280148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Thunder62c336$208 inWon+$127.6842845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Clippers53c318$169 inLost-$168.543,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Thunder63c268.4$170 inWon+$98.4771052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Clippers38c223.97$85 inLost-$84.972,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Thunder64c165$106 inWon+$59.46550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Clippers52c159.45$83 inLost-$82.9238151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Clippers40c123$49 inLost-$49.21,10941.8%464 W · 645 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers38c92.43$35 inLost-$35.129,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Clippers49c68.8$34 inLost-$33.7347144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Thunder51c66.8$34 inWon+$32.7365950.8%335 W · 324 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Clippers55c54.55$30 inLost-$3022442.9%96 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fe…e803backed Clippers56c41.07$23 inLost-$234746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Thunder44c41.07$18 inWon+$2347448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.