TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Clippersof Thunder, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74d3…0332backed Clippers51c4,247$2,166 inWon+$2,081.1434645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Thunder49c2,000$980 inLost-$98017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Thunder49c714.02$350 inLost-$349.872948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers51c528.41$272 inWon+$256.8180148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…1ed3backed Thunder49c500$245 inLost-$2454647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder49c388$190 inLost-$190.1258951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Thunder49c200$98 inLost-$9817035.9%61 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Clippers51c184.54$94 inWon+$90.422,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Thunder48c108$52 inLost-$51.8447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Thunder49c104.43$51 inLost-$51.1757444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Thunder48c100$48 inLost-$488540%34 W · 51 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x04ff…37a0backed Thunder49c99.45$49 inLost-$48.731662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7f…4843backed Thunder49c98.98$48 inLost-$48.51560%9 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a4…a58abacked Thunder49c67.35$33 inLost-$333953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a36…93a0backed Thunder49c62$30 inLost-$30.381747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5780…5a8bbacked Clippers52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.