NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e1ccbdfbe2361a5c72fab3fab738a8ba2ef069c735d7ea5b4310bbc77b3d1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers | 40c | 6,343$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.85 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 60c | 5,326$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…1960backed Clippers | 43c | 3,187$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…c6f4backed Thunder | 57c | 3,014$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…01c2backed Thunder | 57c | 2,631$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 40c | 2,528$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…8aabbacked Clippers | 43c | 2,458$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Clippers | 53c | 2,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…f8fabacked Clippers | 43c | 1,562$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 58c | 1,246$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.19 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…8f26backed Clippers | 43c | 1,054$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…e4f5backed Thunder | 57c | 1,016$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…f683backed Thunder | 57c | 960$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…0b8dbacked Clippers | 43c | 935$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…fa5ebacked Thunder | 57c | 890$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 42c | 822.22$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…7497backed Thunder | 57c | 784$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…88f8backed Clippers | 43c | 739$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 37c | 699.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Clippers | 48c | 686.38$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.54 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…1fccbacked Clippers | 43c | 675$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27eb…1cf4backed Thunder | 57c | 649$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…c20ebacked Thunder | 52c | 640.38$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Clippers | 40c | 566.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.54 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…3251backed Thunder | 57c | 529$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…cb66backed Clippers | 43c | 503$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Clippers | 44c | 463.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0e57backed Thunder | 57c | 453$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Thunder | 58c | 406$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Thunder | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder | 58c | 272.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…393dbacked Thunder | 57c | 270$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…6f7abacked Clippers | 44c | 269$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Thunder | 60c | 258$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…f3dbbacked Clippers | 44c | 236.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Clippers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Clippers | 43c | 165.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Clippers | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…e782backed Thunder | 57c | 121$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Clippers | 45c | 101.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Thunder | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Clippers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Thunder | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Clippers | 46c | 93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Thunder | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Thunder | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb621…a47abacked Thunder | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Clippers | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Clippers | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Clippers | 38c | 54.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Clippers | 44c | 50.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Thunder | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Thunder | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Clippers | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Thunder | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Thunder | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Thunder | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Thunder | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…0f1bbacked Thunder | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a9…197bbacked Thunder | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…cad6backed Clippers | 51c | 27.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Clippers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Thunder | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…0375backed Thunder | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Clippers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. ClippersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.