TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,429 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers43c1,666$710 inLost-$710.2480148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942c…fb3abacked Thunder59c338.98$200 inWon+$138.985653.6%30 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers41c244.11$101 inLost-$100.679,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Thunder59c171.59$101 inWon+$70.1371052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1321…2286backed Clippers47c149.99$70 inLost-$70.54339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers41c144$59 inLost-$59.046,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Clippers43c111.74$48 inLost-$48.0516243.8%71 W · 91 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Thunder53c103.77$55 inWon+$48.7725336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Clippers40c59.82$24 inLost-$23.9324946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Thunder55c52.38$29 inWon+$23.574542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Thunder53c47.88$25 inWon+$22.473740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Thunder55c45.05$25 inWon+$20.273240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Clippers47c45$21 inLost-$218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da3…a7efbacked Clippers47c42.55$20 inLost-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.