NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26f7409463113442f2948ce174c2358bde64b59ca7eef50047434bd529e9beee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Thunder | 46c | 4,392$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…e5d8backed Clippers | 57c | 4,229$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.56 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Thunder | 43c | 3,070$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.84 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…7630backed Clippers | 57c | 2,894$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 43c | 2,258$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Clippers | 54c | 1,743$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.2 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 43c | 1,355$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.35 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Clippers | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Thunder | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers | 53c | 549.12$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.04 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 43c | 365$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…8c48backed Clippers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 44c | 186$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Clippers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…8ce4backed Clippers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Thunder | 43c | 162$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Thunder | 46c | 108.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Clippers | 56c | 63.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Clippers | 56c | 44.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Clippers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…7d56backed Clippers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…912cbacked Thunder | 45c | 25.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Clippers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. ClippersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.