NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f1bc84bb145d6a7a30e8f341f846fa8490ab9c5110eb200627ad7f1f2192bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccca…3b2bbacked Knicks | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Knicks | 46c | 4,136$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.21 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 4,129$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,215.21 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Timberwolves | 58c | 3,444$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.52 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 1,110$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.22 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Timberwolves | 59c | 851.9$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.74 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 744.27$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.24 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks | 48c | 554$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.68 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 425.56$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.06 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Knicks | 47c | 363.83$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Timberwolves | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Knicks | 46c | 315.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.22 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks | 48c | 311.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.23 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Timberwolves | 52c | 253.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 44c | 205.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Timberwolves | 59c | 172.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Knicks | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Knicks | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Timberwolves | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Knicks | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Knicks | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Knicks | 44c | 84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Knicks | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Knicks | 49c | 73.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…f750backed Timberwolves | 54c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842f…1399backed Knicks | 44c | 67.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Timberwolves | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Knicks | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…4457backed Knicks | 46c | 53.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…ac0cbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 53.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Knicks | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…9a43backed Knicks | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…3890backed Knicks | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3076…96a0backed Knicks | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…0304backed Timberwolves | 56c | 30.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Timberwolves | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Knicks | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae21…f485backed Knicks | 47c | 21.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Timberwolves vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.