NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ced96e0b188edbe4af90d34e1138f00433b6a83f562cf0dacdf9bb396ef1e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Knicks | 49c | 11,053$5,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,636.95 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Timberwolves | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Timberwolves | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…fed1backed Knicks | 50c | 6,990$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,495 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Timberwolves | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Timberwolves | 51c | 5,086$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603.18 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Knicks | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 4,849$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Knicks | 49c | 4,237$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.87 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Knicks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Knicks | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Knicks | 49c | 804.64$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.01 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Knicks | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 48c | 649$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.48 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Knicks | 50c | 593$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…1ebebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 473.91$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.17 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Knicks | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccca…3b2bbacked Knicks | 48c | 301.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Knicks | 49c | 208$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Knicks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Knicks | 51c | 74.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Knicks | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…feb2backed Knicks | 50c | 28.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 49c | 27.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Timberwolves vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.