TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Hornets, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,463,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,432,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,463,227 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 719 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Pelicans58c233,281$135,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,977.8347848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Hornets42c185,167$77,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,770.1315443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3987…259ebacked Hornets42c163,422$68,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,928.828022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Hornets42c102,000$42,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,82020253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Hornets42c96,418$40,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,502.4441848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans58c63,223$36,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,853.771,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Hornets41c41,429$17,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,002.721,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hornets38c40,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6adb…a902backed Hornets43c39,111$16,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,817.76944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Pelicans57c37,446$21,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,203.8714856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Pelicans58c25,000$14,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5007149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c8…fed1backed Hornets42c25,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5003748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Hornets42c24,905$10,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,357.22626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Hornets45c22,358$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pelicans57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Pelicans54c18,601$10,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,509.1826038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Pelicans57c17,558$10,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,549.8911558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Hornets39c17,000$6,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,690.5511547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Pelicans58c16,899$9,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,097.7734645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Pelicans72c16,429$11,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,578.8219249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Hornets45c16,241$7,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,241.1647144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Pelicans58c15,752$9,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,657.586654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Pelicans59c15,656$9,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,348.744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Hornets55c15,039$8,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,204.7813455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Hornets42c14,176$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00016251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Hornets46c13,644$6,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,333.4985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Pelicans53c13,579$7,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,382.17748.1%37 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Hornets44c11,739$5,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,192.1136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Hornets42c11,072$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,650.117946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Hornets42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Hornets45c9,698$4,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,366.5548944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Hornets42c9,600$3,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,986.9861835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pelicans58c9,304$5,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,939.5669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans57c9,000$5,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.992,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans58c8,407$4,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,553.259,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pelicans56c8,015$4,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.292,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Pelicans40c7,981$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,788.61,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Pelicans62c7,800$4,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9647468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Pelicans53c7,760$4,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,647.330157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccca…3b2bbacked Pelicans58c7,386$4,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,102.282330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Pelicans58c6,952$4,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,906.7716749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Hornets47c6,442$3,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,006.7626044.6%116 W · 144 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Hornets42c6,116$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,547.9971052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pelicans61c6,020$3,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.2281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets48c5,764$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.132,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hornets41c5,755$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.412,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Hornets45c5,186$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.3240133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdf7…9189backed Pelicans68c5,113$3,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.24837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Hornets42c5,002$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.9735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Hornets42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Pelicans56c4,572$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.6811741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans59c4,447$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.352,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Hornets74c4,437$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.2147448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Pelicans58c4,313$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.1712160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans44c4,198$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.781,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Hornets42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6806636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Pelicans57c3,995$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.061656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Hornets39c3,929$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.065244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pelicans45c3,734$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.1485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Hornets43c3,550$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.6666250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Pelicans58c3,472$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.115855.2%32 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hornets50c3,298$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.252,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Hornets52c3,287$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70066744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Pelicans58c2,967$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.877739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Hornets45c2,679$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.1824330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Hornets46c2,674$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.0487744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans42c2,637$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.143,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Pelicans59c2,596$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.5522449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Pelicans57c2,500$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0754045%18 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05b2…a469backed Hornets74c2,447$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.921471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Hornets42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Hornets40c2,350$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.6278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hornets6c2,324$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.951,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pelicans53c2,311$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.0795049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans61c2,050$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.4564651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8601,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Pelicans47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06011939.5%47 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hornets43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Pelicans58c1,806$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.1914161%86 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pelicans47c1,620$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.911,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Hornets25c1,579$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1826949.1%132 W · 137 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Pelicans56c1,523$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.2112050%60 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Hornets42c1,436$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb91…11f7backed Pelicans55c1,424$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x341e…9b67backed Hornets58c1,375$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+45.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Pelicans52c1,370$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.799344.1%41 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Pelicans37c1,360$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.9934942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Pelicans49c1,338$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.371,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Pelicans54c1,321$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.6654747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Hornets43c1,317$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.4310246.1%47 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Pelicans34c1,304$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.4753134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Pelicans51c1,275$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.6713345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe651…8764backed Pelicans48c1,260$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+65.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pelicans55c1,256$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.011,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Pelicans54c1,205$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.8938151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Hornets44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9923644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Hornets59c1,186$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007450%37 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fad…b5b2backed Hornets43c1,172$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.371225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Hornets43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015228.3%43 W · 109 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pelicans36c1,162$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.8559743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.