NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43f99ef6511d88a97688722baff68c8145292fffd26d1b47eef90ed123186af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Pelicans | 52c | 27,931$14,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,406.7 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Hornets | 48c | 18,750$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Hornets | 49c | 2,991$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.89 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Hornets | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans | 51c | 1,999$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.5 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.79 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Hornets | 49c | 1,714$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.63 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Hornets | 48c | 1,625$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 50c | 1,546$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hornets | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 46c | 1,409$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.94 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Hornets | 49c | 1,140$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.71 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 45c | 1,026$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Hornets | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Hornets | 49c | 515$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans | 55c | 490.09$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.54 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…71dbbacked Pelicans | 51c | 397.65$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Pelicans | 51c | 340.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 48c | 331.77$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.71 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Hornets | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Pelicans | 58c | 191.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 44c | 173.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Pelicans | 52c | 166.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets | 49c | 165.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Hornets | 44c | 144.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Pelicans | 52c | 126$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Pelicans | 51c | 73.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets | 49c | 62.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Hornets | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Pelicans | 47c | 36.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Hornets | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Hornets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Hornets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)this page
- Hornets vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.