NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b47ed25d3d3c0dda019bb03a23f1159a51e4037b65c3e4bb984b77aa7d2b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Pelicans | 55c | 4,493$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.73 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 47c | 1,859$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.53 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 45c | 996.91$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 47c | 965.6$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.53 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans | 54c | 894$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.24 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 46c | 887$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Pelicans | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Hornets | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Pelicans | 54c | 322$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Hornets | 50c | 163.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 45c | 114.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Hornets | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Pelicans | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Hornets | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Hornets | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Hornets | 46c | 79.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Hornets | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Hornets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Hornets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Hornets | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Hornets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…e803backed Pelicans | 59c | 41.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hornets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hornets | 41c | 38.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Hornets | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…eb32backed Hornets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…3a2cbacked Hornets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Hornets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Hornets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…7a3bbacked Pelicans | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Hornets | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d7…d530backed Hornets | 50c | 21.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)this page
- Hornets vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.