NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26d96ea10f5dc353d7955399e2ef8f2b9518848fed868f468eb67636887e69f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 46c | 1,972$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.11 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 57c | 1,300$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.96 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 1,221$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.31 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 1,029$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.92 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…8893backed Over | 57c | 838$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 54c | 380.47$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Over | 54c | 122.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 51c | 96.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…f272backed Under | 43c | 83.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…f281backed Under | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…a94fbacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…619abacked Under | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…a60fbacked Under | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb115…cd61backed Under | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…bbc8backed Under | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…7283backed Under | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…704bbacked Under | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…a9ccbacked Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…a09fbacked Under | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…0e07backed Under | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…74a6backed Under | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Over | 54c | 25.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde13…76f4backed Over | 54c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…38febacked Over | 54c | 24.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Over | 54c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Under | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5this page
- Hornets vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.