NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f8f8181711337968a179dc136be815cb7ea57cfb7ea319af11cca8f0fc78e71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 54c | 8,403$4,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,865.59 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 50c | 7,240$3,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.15 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 6,424$3,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,144.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 46c | 5,450$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.16 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 46c | 1,985$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.1 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 54c | 1,586$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.67 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 1,549$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.43 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 46c | 1,226$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.26 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 793.07$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.8 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 696.7$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.59 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 552$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 550$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 46c | 257$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 182.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 53c | 148.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 54c | 131.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 60c | 108.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…17c3backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5this page
- Hornets vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.