NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61af40daa2ce0c51f78a2c28eba06684dc0bfca3b1f765a4233ea1b568134e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Heat | 47c | 2,250$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.5 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 53c | 2,018$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…3249backed Heat | 46c | 1,545$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 45c | 1,501$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.55 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0842…9d35backed Heat | 46c | 1,320$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…e0cfbacked Nuggets | 54c | 1,158$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…81d8backed Heat | 46c | 1,120$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…1663backed Heat | 46c | 1,007$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…3b1cbacked Nuggets | 54c | 831$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…6a61backed Nuggets | 54c | 689$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…f211backed Nuggets | 54c | 621.11$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Nuggets | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…178bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 421$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets | 55c | 403.64$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.64 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…0320backed Nuggets | 54c | 402$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…147bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 401$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Nuggets | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…7654backed Nuggets | 54c | 317$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 48c | 314$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…5a57backed Heat | 51c | 292.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…e859backed Heat | 46c | 290$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 45c | 203.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 47c | 203$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Nuggets | 46c | 195.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…e599backed Nuggets | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nuggets | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Nuggets | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…2c2ebacked Nuggets | 54c | 132$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef33…7794backed Nuggets | 54c | 102$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Nuggets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af6…5d07backed Nuggets | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…bec8backed Nuggets | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Heat | 48c | 64.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Heat | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Nuggets | 48c | 49.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Nuggets | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…9b86backed Nuggets | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…3701backed Nuggets | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5223…29d9backed Nuggets | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…970ebacked Nuggets | 55c | 20.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…b2a4backed Nuggets | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)this page
- Heat vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.