NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a0e7bf49f66f836140ebb7c8924fb1327ecd20e5cddca8b7c2ee33c428ea3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed Under | 50c | 38,633$19,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,316.41 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 34,334$17,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,213.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 52c | 13,125$6,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,793.89 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 49c | 9,495$4,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,829.27 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 8,724$4,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,526.55 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 1,709$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.37 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 51c | 1,586$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.86 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af6…5d07backed Under | 47c | 1,548$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,532$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…e859backed Over | 53c | 1,327$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 50c | 1,226$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.64 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 50c | 1,221$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.55 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…e0cfbacked Under | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 49c | 823$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.15 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…5f86backed Under | 47c | 681$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…6a61backed Under | 47c | 671$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…2c2ebacked Over | 53c | 657$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 51c | 585.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.64 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…3249backed Over | 53c | 568$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…5491backed Over | 53c | 524$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…e599backed Over | 53c | 192$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0842…9d35backed Over | 53c | 158$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…c5b1backed Over | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…4869backed Over | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 51c | 78.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…9b86backed Over | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…178bbacked Over | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…db81backed Over | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…f211backed Over | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Under | 51c | 41.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Over | 49c | 31.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…b2a4backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5223…29d9backed Under | 51c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…fea4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5this page
- Heat vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.