NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Nuggets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e47ce6ac72a1205b95a3af23b1f7836332dad89b7e6d0e1465cd1849bdd3b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Heat, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,015,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,050,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,015,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Heat | 23c | 218,273$50,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,202.69 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…259ebacked Nuggets | 77c | 207,896$160,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,816.18 | 80 | 22.5%18 W · 62 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat | 12c | 120,000$14,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,850 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Heat | 0c | 51,255$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Heat | 14c | 50,778$7,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,108.88 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Heat | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Nuggets | 78c | 29,972$23,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,730.24 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Heat | 13c | 16,383$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +241.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Nuggets | 77c | 15,890$12,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,654.65 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Heat | 23c | 15,229$3,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,528.58 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Nuggets | 77c | 15,000$11,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Heat | 23c | 14,023$3,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,198.59 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Nuggets | 77c | 12,926$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.89 | 340 | 62.1%211 W · 129 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Heat | 12c | 11,671$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.52 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Heat | 0c | 11,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 238 | 33.2%79 W · 159 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Heat | 0c | 10,324$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nuggets | 76c | 10,000$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Heat | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.98 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Nuggets | 77c | 9,524$7,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.43 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Heat | 1c | 7,754$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Nuggets | 76c | 6,481$4,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.44 | 280 | 63.9%179 W · 101 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 22c | 6,284$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.34 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Heat | 22c | 6,047$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.25 | 352 | 35.8%126 W · 226 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets | 78c | 5,611$4,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.57 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat | 23c | 5,500$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.99 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa04…5ed1backed Heat | 21c | 5,358$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Heat | 23c | 4,991$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.03 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Heat | 22c | 4,311$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.43 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Heat | 22c | 4,120$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.6 | 475 | 35.8%170 W · 305 L | +41.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Heat | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Heat | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.99 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 76c | 3,880$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Heat | 6c | 3,591$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Nuggets | 74c | 3,570$2,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.15 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2c…94c5backed Heat | 5c | 3,350$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Nuggets | 77c | 3,279$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.25 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Nuggets | 76c | 3,262$2,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.83 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Heat | 11c | 2,832$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.2 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat | 12c | 2,821$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.22 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Heat | 22c | 2,800$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Heat | 27c | 2,558$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.62 | 853 | 44%375 W · 478 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…dc82backed Heat | 6c | 2,417$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Heat | 25c | 2,407$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Heat | 2c | 2,224$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Heat | 5c | 2,167$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Heat | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Heat | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…4d5dbacked Nuggets | 78c | 1,923$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Heat | 2c | 1,908$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 679 | 11%75 W · 604 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Heat | 26c | 1,907$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.25 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…472ebacked Nuggets | 77c | 1,700$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Heat | 21c | 1,700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.98 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…3560backed Heat | 9c | 1,686$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Heat | 20c | 1,681$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.2 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e78…4d28backed Heat | 24c | 1,600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Heat | 22c | 1,600$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.57 | 243 | 30.9%75 W · 168 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Heat | 2c | 1,561$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Nuggets | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 444 | 59.7%265 W · 179 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Heat | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 652 | 18.4%120 W · 532 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Heat | 23c | 1,437$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.14 | 489 | 44.2%216 W · 273 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Nuggets | 75c | 1,325$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Heat | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…f21ebacked Heat | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Heat | 16c | 1,300$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 784 | 45.8%359 W · 425 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…1d5dbacked Nuggets | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Heat | 14c | 1,264$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…610ebacked Heat | 23c | 1,243$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Heat | 10c | 1,232$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…9b30backed Heat | 17c | 1,220$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019d…2b01backed Heat | 25c | 1,206$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Heat | 28c | 1,018$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.48 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Heat | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Heat | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Nuggets | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Nuggets | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111c…2ac5backed Nuggets | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…26aabacked Heat | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Heat | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb800…e43abacked Heat | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Heat | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 345 | 24.3%84 W · 261 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Nuggets | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…9c77backed Heat | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…0d09backed Heat | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Heat | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Heat | 1c | 949.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 882 | 0%0 W · 882 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heat | 10c | 941.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Nuggets | 77c | 870$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Heat | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Heat | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…18fcbacked Heat | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Heat | 23c | 851.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 152 | 28.3%43 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nuggets | 75c | 826.45$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.33 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Heat | 8c | 766.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 487 | 39.8%194 W · 293 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Nuggets | 79c | 764.29$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…490cbacked Heat | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Heat | 16c | 701.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…98c9backed Nuggets | 80c | 701.46$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.69 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…7eb5backed Heat | 24c | 616.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Heat | 24c | 613.34$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Nuggetsthis page
- Heat vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.