TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Nuggets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Heat, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,015,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,050,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,015,721 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Heat23c218,273$50,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,202.6915443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3987…259ebacked Nuggets77c207,896$160,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,816.188022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat12c120,000$14,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,85038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked Heat0c51,255$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.226147.5%29 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Heat14c50,778$7,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,108.8820253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Heat0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Nuggets78c29,972$23,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,730.2471052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Heat13c16,383$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1384037.5%15 W · 25 L+7.6wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+241.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Nuggets77c15,890$12,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,654.6547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Heat23c15,229$3,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,528.582,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Nuggets77c15,000$11,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4504766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Heat23c14,023$3,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,198.5985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Nuggets77c12,926$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.8934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Heat12c11,671$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.5247144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Heat0c11,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.523833.2%79 W · 159 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Heat0c10,324$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3239018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nuggets76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Heat23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9812334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Nuggets77c9,524$7,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.4311741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Heat1c7,754$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.541,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Nuggets76c6,481$4,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.4428063.9%179 W · 101 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat22c6,284$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.342,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Heat22c6,047$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.2535235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets78c5,611$4,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.573,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat23c5,500$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.9974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa04…5ed1backed Heat21c5,358$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Heat23c4,991$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.031,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Heat22c4,311$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.4346928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Heat22c4,120$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.647535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Heat2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Heat23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.996636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets76c3,880$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.029,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Heat6c3,591$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6810533.3%35 W · 70 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Nuggets74c3,570$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.154757.4%27 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2c…94c5backed Heat5c3,350$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1849141.8%38 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nuggets77c3,279$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.251,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nuggets76c3,262$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.8395049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Heat11c2,832$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.21,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat12c2,821$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.223,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Heat22c2,800$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6161,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Heat27c2,558$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.6285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8643…dc82backed Heat6c2,417$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.645827.6%16 W · 42 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+92.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Heat25c2,407$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f83…7252backed Heat2c2,224$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.442910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Heat5c2,167$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045757.9%33 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Heat3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Heat19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb76e…4d5dbacked Nuggets78c1,923$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Heat2c1,908$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4067911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Heat26c1,907$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.256744.8%30 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadc…472ebacked Nuggets77c1,700$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3912777.8%21 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Heat21c1,700$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9861835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa52…3560backed Heat9c1,686$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Heat20c1,681$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.217441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e78…4d28backed Heat24c1,600$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3842343.5%10 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+74.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Heat22c1,600$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5724330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat2c1,561$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.832,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Nuggets77c1,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Heat7c1,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11065218.4%120 W · 532 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Heat23c1,437$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.1448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked Nuggets75c1,325$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Heat23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1edd…f21ebacked Heat23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004835.4%17 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heat16c1,300$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3378445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf1…1d5dbacked Nuggets78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.05757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Heat14c1,264$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.934617.4%8 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe478…610ebacked Heat23c1,243$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Heat10c1,232$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12116532.7%54 W · 111 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c72…9b30backed Heat17c1,220$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-50.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Heat25c1,206$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat28c1,018$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.485,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0175347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Heat1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Heat24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24016633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Nuggets76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24016436.6%60 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nuggets76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2409344.1%41 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x111c…2ac5backed Nuggets77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2303250%16 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c2…26aabacked Heat23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2303562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Heat28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2802339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb800…e43abacked Heat23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305837.9%22 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Heat10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034524.3%84 W · 261 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Nuggets76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2405655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d2…9c77backed Heat24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403050%15 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…0d09backed Heat23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Heat22c999.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Heat1c949.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat10c941.51$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.71,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Nuggets77c870$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.17739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Heat23c869.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a2d…f033backed Heat23c869.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b3…18fcbacked Heat23c869.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-68.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Heat23c851.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015228.3%43 W · 109 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nuggets75c826.45$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.331,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Heat8c766.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.348739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Nuggets79c764.29$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2984957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69bd…490cbacked Heat28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b55…01c6backed Heat16c701.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108134.6%28 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Nuggets80c701.46$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6913042.3%55 W · 75 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x734e…7eb5backed Heat24c616.67$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Heat24c613.34$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9319434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.