NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5bd25e388847748e9031bf754a1bce6f537ddcfc9333bcb5f54baaabdf3da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a18…9d39backed Under | 53c | 18,086$9,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,500.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…43d8backed Over | 47c | 18,086$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 3,732$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 499.61$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.74 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Under | 46c | 310$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 54c | 305$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 56c | 275$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 153$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Under | 56c | 55.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5this page
- Heat vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.