NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ea550aded45a28a65bf3ce7f2e0f494c6714a07ca2368e205c250ab5cd8d3e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $683,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $683,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 49c | 637,025$311,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325,106.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 51c | 202,010$103,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,025.2 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 51c | 200,597$102,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,304.59 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 45,414$23,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,467.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Over | 51c | 26,708$13,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,634.56 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 51c | 11,111$5,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,666.61 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 9,970$5,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,134.5 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Over | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 7,500$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 5,114$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.78 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 48c | 5,062$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.1 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 51c | 2,912$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.74 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 54c | 2,057$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.78 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 1,260$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.4 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 375.61$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.56 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 169$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 53c | 166.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…b0bbbacked Over | 51c | 118$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 82.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 49c | 71.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Under | 61c | 62.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Over | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Over | 35c | 39.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…62c7backed Over | 51c | 38.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…3701backed Over | 54c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5this page
- Heat vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.