NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea5b9d4ec49c9f6ebe9a051bd8bb2025c0348d804bec6201f45dadde82442f6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Heat | 52c | 58,973$30,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,780.06 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 48c | 16,398$7,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,557.59 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets | 48c | 15,826$7,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,229.52 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,799.98 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 48c | 12,495$5,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,549.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Nuggets | 47c | 10,062$4,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,328.7 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Heat | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Nuggets | 48c | 7,876$3,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,058.99 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Nuggets | 48c | 7,641$3,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.44 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.99 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 48c | 3,685$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.49 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Nuggets | 48c | 3,649$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.96 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Nuggets | 49c | 3,600$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Heat | 51c | 3,585$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.42 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,889$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.39 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 53c | 1,867$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 51c | 1,478$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.56 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,332$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.38 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,045$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat | 52c | 1,038$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb22…ce57backed Nuggets | 50c | 610$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Heat | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Nuggets | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Nuggets | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Heat | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 380$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Heat | 40c | 349$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Nuggets | 47c | 318.44$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 49c | 307.96$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 297.47$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Heat | 52c | 278.85$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…8ce4backed Heat | 51c | 205.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…86a8backed Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Heat | 52c | 196.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nuggets | 46c | 185.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 171.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed Heat | 52c | 162.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Nuggets | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nuggets | 48c | 147$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Nuggets | 49c | 146.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Nuggets | 49c | 103.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Heat | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Heat | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Heat | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Heat | 54c | 65.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 49c | 55.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Heat | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…3a2cbacked Heat | 52c | 53.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Heat | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Heat | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Heat | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Heat | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Heat | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Heat | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heat | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Nuggets | 52c | 29.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 28.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 48c | 26.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff0…f5babacked Heat | 53c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nuggets | 48c | 21.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)this page
- Heat vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.