Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26581fd0ae4f42998f0be2875d5d8fc78eb6cdd0f420797e0fefbbc59bf57667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 37c | 1,000$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.3 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 340$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 64c | 300$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed Yes | 63c | 204.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…b50dbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 58c | 61.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked No | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 36c | 28.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…fdf3backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.