Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f3adbd2df0116a82300b4cbb4c76d3115df4ea96a68a4aa961692040bd7c4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Borussia Dortmundof Borussia Dortmund, FC Augsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Borussia Dortmund | 62c | 8,054$4,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed FC Augsburg | 38c | 7,818$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.77 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Borussia Dortmund | 63c | 2,292$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FC Augsburg | 37c | 1,724$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.29 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed FC Augsburg | 38c | 399.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed FC Augsburg | 41c | 395.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.17 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed FC Augsburg | 37c | 195.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Borussia Dortmund | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed FC Augsburg | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…cd30backed Borussia Dortmund | 60c | 56.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e2…3699backed FC Augsburg | 40c | 56.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…720ebacked FC Augsburg | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Borussia Dortmund | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…6154backed FC Augsburg | 40c | 46.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Borussia Dortmund | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked FC Augsburg | 39c | 28.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…293fbacked Borussia Dortmund | 63c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)this page
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.