Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882dbb76d6f5b1fcf6431dfae0a95e2f9d19308a65f401de14dfd86d12bc7864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 36c | 6,850$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,383.78 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 64c | 4,382$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 4,250$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 55c | 3,739$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.19 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341e…9b67backed Under | 56c | 1,070$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…e1e9backed Over | 64c | 997.91$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 37c | 969$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.47 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 38c | 820$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.4 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…c250backed Over | 65c | 770.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Under | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 61c | 669.69$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 39c | 604.56$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 576.61$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.06 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 64c | 560.23$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 35c | 453.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.85 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 35c | 443.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.59 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 64c | 419.06$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.2 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 34c | 409.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 63c | 317$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Over | 65c | 305.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Over | 52c | 270.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Over | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 62c | 170$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b12…30d8backed Over | 64c | 117$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 64c | 103.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 35c | 97.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Under | 51c | 76.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed Over | 26c | 75.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Under | 69c | 72.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…8c8dbacked Under | 37c | 61.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecb…6f9fbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 36c | 46.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…33d4backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…2ef8backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa432…1890backed Over | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…6ea2backed Over | 63c | 26.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…317abacked Over | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…45bbbacked Over | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9e97backed Over | 65c | 18.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…a92cbacked Over | 64c | 17.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…5f39backed Over | 64c | 17.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…f489backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.