Euroleague · resolved market
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Real Madrid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd528d3e98ba6c4f6a0aecf4d794caa2ba7cc207ba0b529fd93de020ac182c057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Munchenof FC Bayern Munchen, Real Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Madrid | 46c | 2,257$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.98 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Real Madrid | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 1,400$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.88 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FC Bayern Munchen | 60c | 1,271$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.15 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 1,171$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed FC Bayern Munchen | 46c | 1,034$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.01 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Real Madrid | 64c | 315$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed FC Bayern Munchen | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Real Madrid | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed4…8c3cbacked Real Madrid | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Real Madrid | 66c | 57.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 30c | 46.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.