NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87f6697ef5f73f78da1dab50caa38287c768d56db6173a68bb6df4e8d1961212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Thunder | 48c | 22,000$10,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,559.98 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccca…3b2bbacked Thunder | 45c | 19,000$8,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,550 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 14,846$8,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,652.24 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 7,298$3,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,347.6 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 5,638$2,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.54 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 5,423$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,604.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 5,346$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.64 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Thunder | 50c | 4,318$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.55 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 3,850$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.35 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 42c | 2,601$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.56 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 2,350$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 2,092$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 1,978$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.84 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Thunder | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Thunder | 43c | 1,751$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…2e18backed Trail Blazers | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.47 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 1,258$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.2 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Thunder | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 862$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.76 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Thunder | 46c | 839.98$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.79 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 746.59$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.58 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Thunder | 46c | 726.09$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 52c | 703.23$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Thunder | 2c | 671.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Trail Blazers | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879f…8417backed Thunder | 47c | 320.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Thunder | 43c | 279.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 45c | 264.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Thunder | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 187.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…077ebacked Thunder | 49c | 159.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -13.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 158.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Thunder | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 138 | 31.2%43 W · 95 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Thunder | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Thunder | 46c | 108.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Thunder | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Thunder | 44c | 91.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Thunder | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Thunder | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Thunder | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Thunder | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Thunder | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Thunder | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…d559backed Thunder | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Thunder | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…5753backed Thunder | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Thunder | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…cc6bbacked Thunder | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a7…ecdfbacked Trail Blazers | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.